NEK Weater

Forecast Discussion for BTV NWS Office
FXUS61 KBTV 231924

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
324 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Strong high pressure will continue to dominate regional weather
conditions through early next week with mainly clear skies and
very warm, near record-setting temperatures. Sensible conditions
change by the middle to later portions of next week as a
Canadian cold front brings cooler weather along with a chance of


As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...More of the same tonight into
Sunday night as deep layer ridging amplifies across the region,
post- tropical cyclone Jose slowly dissipates south of Nantucket
and major hurricane Maria drifts slowly north off the
southeastern seaboard. No impacts from these tropical systems
are expected. As the high bridges overhead an even warmer and
more humid airmass will advect in from the west and south,
setting the stage for record-setting high temperatures on
Sunday. Leaned close to a bias-corrected MOS solution in regard
to temperatures which offers an expected larger than normal
diurnal range through the period. Lows tonight and Sunday night
mainly in the 50s to lower 60s, then solid 80s to locally near
90 in favored warm spots on Sunday. See climate data below for
specific records for today through Tuesday.


As of 320 PM EDT Saturday...Little change to the weather is
expected for Monday and Monday night with the upper ridge
remaining in place over the area. Dew points will be on the high
side so the summertime weather will continue. Above normal
highs mainly in the upper 70s and 80s with lows mainly in the
50s and 60s are expected. The higher dew points on Monday will
push heat index values into the lower 90s across the larger
valleys (Saint Lawrence and Champlain).


As of 320 PM EDT Saturday...Forecast remains on track with a
general flattening of the upper ridge through Wednesday. Warm
temperatures aloft will continue to result in temperatures about
20 degrees above normal on Tuesday and about 15 degrees above
normal on Wednesday. The flow aloft becomes more west to
southwest by Wednesday with models showing mid level short waves
carving out a trough which moves across the region the latter
half of the week. This will result in an increased potential for
showers and possibly a thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon into
the evening. With upper level support will hold on to slight/low
chance pops through Saturday. The attendant cold front will
usher in much cooler and more seasonal temperatures for the end
of the work week. Readings may even be below normal by Saturday.


Through 18Z Sunday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected
through the TAF period with mostly clear skies. The possible
exception might be some overnight fog and IFR/LIFR conditions
at KMPV/KSLK from 07-12Z Sunday. Confidence only moderate given
recent dry weather and dry soil conditions. Light winds less
than 10 knots are expected through the period.


Sunday Night: VFR. Patchy FG.
Monday: VFR.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.


Record high temperatures and year recorded for the period Sat Sep 23
to Tue Sep 26

Day    Burlington     Massena      Montpelier
9/23   87 / 1895      84 / 1964    83 / 1965
9/24   84 / 1961      87 / 2010    83 / 1961
9/25   85 / 1891      90 / 2007    85 / 2007
9/26   84 / 1934      82 / 1970    83 / 2007

For Burlington, here are the latest in the year dates for reaching
specific temperature thresholds

90F or higher:  9/16/1939
88F or higher:  9/22/1965
87F or higher:  9/23/1895
86F or higher:  9/23/1895 (was 87F that day)





NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion

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