NEK Weater


Forecast Discussion for BTV NWS Office
730
FXUS61 KBTV 170559
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1259 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Light to moderate snow will move across the North Country
tonight through the first half of Wednesday in response to an
approaching trough of low pressure. Once the trough passes to
the east Wednesday night most of the precipitation will come to
an end and the main story for the latter part of the week and
weekend will be a warming trend with highs in the upper 30s to
mid 40s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1241 AM EST Wednesday...Previous forecast on track. Fairly
steady snow is ongoing over southern and eastern Vermont as
anticipated. Over northwestern Vermont/northern New York, first
round of snow is weakening as it progresses eastward over the
northern Champlain Valley. We are seeing some slight upslope
enhancement on the western side of the Green Mountains as we saw
with the previous wave of snow this morning amid the fairly
blocked flow. As the first wave of snow tapers off over the next
few hours over northwestern Vermont, expect to see a lull in
precipitation over the northern Champlain Valley for the
remainder of the overnight hours before snow picks up again
around sunrise. Southern/eastern Vermont will see more
continuous snow through this afternoon/early evening as the
better moisture and lift remains over these areas.

Previous forecast...Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect
for Rutland...Windsor...and Orange counties of Vermont until 100
pm on Wednesday. Still looking at 3 to 5 inches across the
advisory area with localized amounts to 6 inches. Over the
remainder of the area amounts will be in the 1 to 3 inch range.
Bottom line...very little has changed with how we feel this
event will play out. Upstream upper trough is move of an open
wave and its progressive...which is why we are not thinking
heavy snow at this time. Tonight through midday on Wednesday is
when the majority of the snow will fall. The snow will taper off
quickly from west to east Wednesday afternoon. With all the
cloud cover tonight lows will not be able to fall too much and
have upped minimum temperatures tonight by a couple of degrees.
Highs on Wednesday will be in the 20s to around 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 312 PM EST Tuesday...Expecting a fairly quiet but not
completely inactive end to the work week with shortwave energy
exiting east of the region Thursday morning, followed by a
series of 2 more weak northern stream shortwave troughs Thursday
night and Friday. In general, the deepest moisture is limited
to the higher elevations where a dusting to perhaps 2" is
possible, mainly Thursday night, but additional snowfall is
possible in the lee of Lake Ontario with some lake enhancement.
The period will also mark the beginning of a gradual moderation
in temperatures which will last into the weekend and early next
week. Highs Thursday will range through the 20s, and warm to the
upper 30s to mid 30s for Friday, with lows Thursday night
mainly in the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 312 PM EST Tuesday...Overall little change from the 00Z
to 12Z NWP guidance in regards to the long term pattern which
continues to highlight moderating temperatures and building
heights across the eastern seaboard between high pressure
anchored offshore and a developing mid-level closed low over the
central Plains. For Friday night through Sunday the forecast
area will be on the northern fringe of a warm frontal zone with
a fast zonal flow aloft. Not looking at any appreciable
precipitation during the period, but can`t rule out a few
rain/snow showers. Temps continue to climb from the end of the
work week with 925-850mb temps in the -3C to +3C range
supporting highs both days in the 30s to low 40s and lows in the
20s.

Forecast becomes more active and complex heading into Sunday night
through Tuesday as the aforementioned closed upper low and
associated surface frontal system shift northeast into the Great
Lakes by mid-day Monday, then further northeast into central Quebec
by Tuesday morning. This track puts the North Country firmly in the
warm sector on Monday with thermal profiles supporting the chance
for a light wintry mix as the warm frontal zone lifts northward
through the area Sunday night into early Monday morning. Entrenched
in the warm sector by mid-day Monday, precipitation chances wane as
a modest low/mid level jet of 35-50kts moves through the region, but
quickly ramp up from west to east in the afternoon ahead of the cold
frontal boundary. Indications are for a good slug of widespread
rainfall to occur Monday afternoon and early overnight before a
transition to snow late Monday night. Right now we don`t anticipate
as much QPF compared to what fell at the end of last week, but
nevertheless, several days of temps in the 40s combined with even a
modest rainfall will bear watching for another round of hydro
concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Currently experiencing MVFR and IFR
conditions in response to light snow. Steadiest snow remains
over southern/eastern Vermont with IFR conditions expected to
continue at RUT through 08Z before improving to MVFR as snow
becomes lighter between 08Z and 17Z. Snow has tapered off at
MSS/SLK/PBG/BTV with conditions temporarily improving over the
next few hours at these sites. Another wave of snow will move in
to RUT/PBG/BTV/MPV between 10Z and 14Z, once again lowering
ceilings and visibilities. This round of snow will end between
22Z and 00Z, allowing widespread improvement to low VFR
conditions after this time. Winds will generally be under 10
knots through the period.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance RA,
Slight chance SN, Slight chance PL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     VTZ010>012-019.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/RSD
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Evenson/RSD

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion




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